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1994-05-02
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<text>
<title>
Regional Analysis of Water Shortage Issues
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
Joint Publications Research Service, January 19, 1992
Regional Affairs: Regional Analysis of Water Shortage Issues
</hdr>
<body>
<p>By Ali Ibrahim: "Water Wars Future Fact Unless Regional
Agreements Are Reached", [London, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat in Arabic,
16 Oct 91, p.6].
</p>
<p> (Ali Ibrahim writes about the Middle East's water problem,
its relation to ongoing arrangements for peace talks in
relation to ongoing arrangements for peace talks in the region,
and the postponement of the 22-country conference that was
scheduled to be held in Turkey on the future of water in the
Middle East. He monitors several aspects of a problem that poses
a future threat to the peoples of the region.)
</p>
<p> Water wars in the Middle East are a future fact that
international research centers and strategy experts predict, as
long as the tension that has begun to rise among the region's
countries over this important resource is not alleviated now
through regional cooperation for joint exploitation of
available common water resources.
</p>
<p> The postponement of the Turkish-sponsored regional
conference on water in the Middle East that was scheduled to be
held next month reflects the extent to which this vital issue
is linked to political arrangements and conditions in the
region. The explanation offered for the postponement was the
desire not to create interference with American efforts to hold
a Middle East peace conference at the end of the month. The
behind-the-scenes explanation was that Syria had refused to
participate in the conference if Israel participated. American
press reports said that Syria was refusing to promise to enter
the third phase of the regional peace talks, involving regional
arrangements about water, unless Israel promised to withdraw
from the Golan Heights.
</p>
<p> Even before the postponement, much controversy accompanied
reports of preparations for the conference in Turkey, amid
uncertainty about the topics that would be raised for
discussion. The single clear topic was a Turkish-supported
scheme for which economic feasibility studies have been
prepared. It has been nicknamed "Pipes for Peace"--a clear
sign of the connection between the water problem and political
arrangements in the Middle East.
</p>
<p> The project calls for laying pipelines costing between $20
billion and $30 billion to deliver surplus water from the
rivers of Turkey to the Arab countries, especially the Gulf
states, across Syria and Jordan. Turkey has promoted the idea
for years and has proposed it to the Gulf states. However, the
high cost and political perils of relying on a water source not
controlled by the receiving countries, plus the problem of
Israel's presence in the heart of the region adjoining the
pipeline, have thus far made implementation of the idea
impractical.
</p>
<p> Reports have leaked out about a scheme that Israel proposed
to the European Community to solve the Middle East's water
problem in the context of comprehensive arrangements in the
postpeace phase. It involves using surplus water from the
Litani River and the water of the Yarmuk River, in addition to
diverting 1 percent of the Nile's water to the Gaza Strip and
the Negev after implementing joint projects to increase the
flow of Nile water to Egypt by 25 percent. This would be done
by draining marshes to reduce evaporation. This is a revival of
an old idea that was raised during the Egyptian-Israeli peace
talks and that met with opposition from Cairo. It is not
expected to gain acceptance, especially since Egypt itself faces
a future threat of inadequate water coming from the heart of
Africa up the Nile.
</p>
<p> Amid the political disagreements and divergent interests, a
basic fact stands out: The peoples of the region are threatened
with a severe water crisis in the future, one that could lead to
wars between rival parties sharing the limited resources.
Egypt's defense minister bluntly hinted several weeks ago that
his country was prepared to use military deterrence if it felt
that its flow of Nile water was threatened.
</p>
<p> The Middle East's water problem is divided into a number of
fronts, or axes. The most critical of them is the one on which
Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria mesh with Israel, especially because
the water problem has begun to be severe in the West Bank,
Jordan, and Israel. Next, water is tied to Turkey, which
controls the sources of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Then,
there is the problem of Egypt's increasing water needs and talk
about proposed dams in certain African countries, particularly
Ethiopia, that share in the Nile. On the periphery, there are
the increasing water needs in the Gulf, although these do not
represent an immediate problem because of desalination plant
projects. Finally, there is Libya's man-made river project,
with conflicting reports emerging about its effect on ground
water in Egypt and Sudan.
</p>
<p> Despite the importance of the problem, there are still no
internationally-recognized regional agreements between all
parties, or even serious negotiations. One exception is Egypt's
effort to sign an agreement among the eight countries that
share the Nile River despite the reservations of a crucial
party, Ethiopia.
</p>
<p> The region's most explosive water problem is the one at
whose heart Israel stands with Jordan, Lebanon and Syria,
particularly since the state of war officially continues and no
agreements exist. Still clearly remembered are Israel's
operations to seize Arab water resources by a logic of force and
to divert the Jordan River, this elicited the holding of the
first Arab summit.
</p>
<p> Israel, which is trying to attract millions of Soviet
immigrants, is well aware that the existing water resources
under its control are inadequate for such tremendous numbers.
Therefore, it is the party most interested in derailing any
current peace arrangements until it can impose a new fait
accompli that increases its water resources--naturally, at
the expense of the water resources of the Arab countries. This
problem could be a central issue in any coming peace talks.
Jordan, in particular, faces a water shortage as shown by
measures to ration water use during the summer.
</p>
<p> As for relations between Turkey, which controls the sources
of the Euphrates and Tigris, and Syria and Iraq, the few
meetings that have been held between the three parties to try to
agree on a permanent formula for water flow from Turkey have
made no progress. Although Turkey denies that it might use
water as a political weapon, unilateral measures to decrease the
flow while a lake forms behind the Ataturk Dam Project have
shown the dangers facing Syria and Iraq because of their lack
of control over water sources. Furthermore, the balance of
power does not favor the two countries. A large population
increase will cause Syria to face a two-billion-cubic-meter
annual water deficit by the year 2000. Turkey, for its part,
says that there is a great waste of water in the two countries.
</p>
<p> The equation is different in Egypt. Although Egypt is the
last party to receive Nile water, it controls this resource
because of many factors. These include the balance of power and
a long history of exploiting the river, inasmuch as agriculture
in Egypt is absolutely dependent on irrigation, and the Nile
represents 90 percent of Egypt's water usage.
</p>
<p> However, with a population that will reach 75 million at the
beginning of the next century, Egypt requires additional water
resources. It greatly supported the Jonglei Canal Project in
the Sudan to increase its share of water, but disturbances in
the Sudanese south halted the project, which still remains in
abeyance.
</p>
<p> On the other hand, there is a threat from projected dams in
Ethiopia, the source of the Blue Nile. The threat still remains
in the realm of possibility, but that does not invalidate the
need to reach an agreement among the nations b